Natural gas told a two-track story this week: European prices under pressure from easing geopolitics, while structural tightness kept a bullish floor under LNG and Henry Hub.
On the bearish side, research tied to the Strait of Hormuz reopening argued European TTF risk premia should keep unwinding, with one published forecast cutting Q3 2026 to €47/MWh (from €60) and Q4 to €50 (from €69) as Qatari LNG ramps back up. Analysts still flagged winter risk if physical tightness returns.
On the bullish side, a recurring technical view on Henry Hub pointed to an accumulation zone between $3.05 and $3.15 with a target above $4, citing solid but not excessive storage builds. Separate analysis argued Asian JKM stays structurally tighter than Europe as Korea, Japan and China outbid for cargoes. Another thread noted European LNG still sits ~40% above pre-conflict levels, with Qatari force majeures unresolved — a setup researchers linked to sticky energy inflation and to long-run tailwinds for Canadian and Australian LNG exporters.