European natural gas prices remain roughly 40% above pre-conflict levels, and recent third-party research argues that squeeze isn't easing anytime soon.
The published analysis points to a tight LNG market held together by several pressures at once: reduced shipments out of Qatar, active force majeure declarations on some cargoes, and steady global competition for available supply. One camp of analysts sees no meaningful volume recovery on the horizon.
The read-through, according to that research: energy-linked inflation risks in Europe stay elevated, and pricing on the TTF benchmark and broader LNG contracts likely faces continued upward pressure until the supply side genuinely loosens. That's a headwind for European industry, household energy bills, and the ECB's inflation fight all at once.
Worth watching as winter demand builds and any incremental supply disruption gets amplified by an already-thin market.