Natural gas outlooks split cleanly by geography — and neither camp is contradicting the other.
On European gas, researchers argue TTF prices are biased higher in the near term. The case: a European heatwave plus lagging storage refills, with inventories tracking about 8 percentage points below last year at roughly 48% of capacity. That's the structural setup they see driving upside.
On US Henry Hub, a separate strand of published analysis takes a more conditional stance. The recognition is that strong domestic production and heavy LNG exports have kept US gas cheap versus global benchmarks. But the argument goes: any hiccup in incremental supply growth — or a demand surge from data centres and the energy transition — could drive a sharp repricing given how wide the US discount to global prices sits today. This is framed as a one-year view, not an immediate call.
So the near-term conviction sits in Europe; the US case is a setup waiting for a catalyst. Complementary, not conflicting.