Natural gas pulled in two directions this week, with researchers split between Middle East risk premiums and normalizing supply.
The bullish camp pointed to the Strait of Hormuz closure spilling into LNG flows, with futures curves cited as implying European TTF holding around €45/MWh into 2026 — roughly €10–15 higher than pre-conflict assumptions. Other analysts flagged structural tailwinds: Asian cooling demand amplified by El Niño, weak hydropower, and gas's role in powering AI data center buildout. On Henry Hub specifically, a technical thesis argued for accumulation in the $3.05–$3.15 zone targeting a move above $4, citing storage 6% above the five-year average and no weather shock.
The bearish thread focused on the US-Iran ceasefire and partial reopening of Hormuz, with reports of resumed LNG flows and EU inventories above 44%. Speculative funds were noted trimming TTF longs. One forecast saw Japan LNG easing from ~$19.5 toward $10.8/mmbtu by Q3 2028 as supply normalizes.
A contrarian note cautioned Qatari flows won't fully recover until September.