Natural gas: the published research lean is broadly bullish, though not unanimously.
On European TTF, researchers point out that EU gas storage is just 46% full versus a five-year average of 61% — leaving the market exposed to any Middle East disruption, as shown by a >3% rally on renewed US-Iran tensions. A separate strand of analysis argues a developing (possibly "super") El Niño could pull LNG cargoes toward Asian cooling demand, making European refills costlier into the 2026/27 winter.
On US Henry Hub, one camp of analysts recommends accumulating in the $3.05–$3.15/MMBtu zone with a target above $4, citing inventory support and a forming bottom. A broader structural bull case — electrification, coal-to-gas switching, AI data centre power demand, and rising LNG exports — is framed as the strongest demand tailwind for North American gas in 35 years.
Dissenting voices: one technical read flags a bearish breakdown in TTF after rejection at 51.54, implying near-term downside. And a contrarian structural view argues the world is "awash in gas," pointing to lower-for-longer US prices.