Natural gas: published research is leaning bullish on Europe and global LNG, but bearish on US Henry Hub — a regional split, not a contradiction.
Researchers argue a "perfect storm" is building for European TTF gas: storage is just 33% full versus a 60% seasonal norm, the forward curve is discouraging injections, North American LNG export capacity is near its ceiling, and peak Asian cooling demand is colliding with peak European refill season. The published view points to sharply higher TTF prices in Q3.
A separate strand of analysis sees global LNG supported by El Niño-driven Asian power demand and ongoing disruption at Qatar's Ras Laffan facility, with one outlook keeping Japanese LNG prices elevated and only easing toward roughly US$13/mmbtu by late 2027. Another macro view expects TTF to stay structurally high into 2027, lifting eurozone inflation forecasts above consensus.
The contrarian thread: one camp argues US Henry Hub gas could slide toward $2 on ample supply, soft industrial demand, and normal weather — a domestic story, not a rebuttal of the European tightness thesis.