Natural gas pricing right now is essentially a bet on the Strait of Hormuz — not on supply and demand fundamentals.
Researchers tracking LNG markets argue prices have lifted "across the board" in recent weeks as Middle East tensions and constrained tanker transit through Hormuz push energy costs broadly higher. One knock-on effect flagged: erosion of Japanese household purchasing power as import bills climb. The view is explicitly tactical and only holds while disruptions continue.
A separate published analysis frames Henry Hub in two scenarios. If crude spikes on a full Hormuz closure, geopolitical spillover could drive US natural gas to $3.50 or higher — even with ample storage and strong production. If US-Iran negotiations resume and a deal lands, the same research sees a retreat to roughly $2.85–$3.00 as the risk premium unwinds and soft underlying fundamentals reassert.
The consensus across these views: neither path reflects a structural shift in gas. It's the Iran situation, priced through different instruments.