Natural gas spent the week caught between a geopolitical shock and a fragile diplomatic offramp.
Early in the week, researchers flagged TTF down sharply on progress in US-Iran talks, with one note pointing to a widening JKM-TTF spread as a sign of further European downside. That tone flipped fast. By midweek, analysis centered on the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — described as the biggest energy security shock since 2022. One published scenario put European gas averaging €120/MWh in Q4 with intraday spikes near €180 if disruption persists; a base case still saw 2026 averaging €51/MWh on depleted inventories.
On the US side, views split. One thread argued Henry Hub looks more bearish through 2026 as higher oil pulls more associated gas out of the Permian faster than LNG capacity can absorb it. The same work flagged US LNG export volumes as a structural winner, with glut risk for 2027-28 fading. Other commentary highlighted Poland and Azerbaijan as European supply chokepoints keeping the risk premium elevated.