Published research is pointing one direction on natural gas: higher. The trigger is the effective disruption of LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with Asian and European buyers competing for flexible cargoes.
Analysts argue this is the biggest energy security shock since 2022. One estimate suggests a doubling of gas prices could add €100bn to Europe's annual import bill, even without a physical shortage. The published base case from one research camp sees European TTF gas averaging €51/MWh through 2026, as inventories draw down and supply normalisation lags any eventual reopening of the Strait.
A stress scenario, conditional on the disruption persisting or escalating, points to TTF surging to an average €120/MWh in Q4 with intraday spikes near €180. A separate, more technically-driven thread of recent research frames natural gas as oversold and stabilising, suggesting an early cyclical turnaround over the coming months.
The views differ on magnitude and method, but not direction. All read higher from here.