Natural gas markets are leaning bullish, but the entire complex is hostage to one variable: whether Middle East supply disruptions persist or a US-Iran deal lands.
European TTF has already softened on diplomatic optimism, and one strand of published research expects more downside if negotiations advance. A separate analytical view runs the other way on US natural gas, arguing that tight LNG shipping capacity and elevated geopolitical risk support higher prices in coming months — but only if Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue. On the tactical side, a near-term technical read of Dutch TTF flags that prices gapped down but quickly drew buyers back above the 47.10 level, hinting at a short-term floor.
The apparent disagreement between the bearish and bullish TTF calls is less a true split than a difference in horizon and condition. The bearish case hinges on US-Iran progress; the bullish ones hinge on it stalling. Same binary, opposite bets.