Today's published research leans bearish on US natural gas, with no opposing view on the domestic side.
The argument from one camp of analysts: US gas is structurally oversupplied. High oil prices are pulling more associated gas out of the ground, and there isn't enough LNG export capacity to ship the surplus abroad. That keeps US storage comfortably full through this year and next, which researchers say should keep Henry Hub prices under pressure.
The international picture looks different in recently-published views. A separate strand of research sees Asian spot LNG prices rising in late Q2 and Q3 2026, as more US cargoes head to Asia amid Middle East supply disruptions. The same analysts project Dutch TTF averaging around €55/MWh in that window, helped by tighter European conditions and redirected US shipments.
The takeaway researchers emphasize: weak Henry Hub alongside firm international LNG benchmarks reflects one core bottleneck — US export capacity. Until that wedge closes, the gap persists.