Natural gas is a story of competing horizons right now, according to recently published research.
In the near term, analysts argue European TTF faces sharp upside risk if the Qatari LNG outage drags on — roughly 20% of global LNG supply is offline, and with Europe's storage injection season underway, one camp sees TTF spiking toward €115/MWh if the disruption stretches into winter. Researchers also flag the Strait of Hormuz as a forceful pass-through channel into gas prices over coming months.
The flip side: published views argue a credible Middle East de-escalation could trigger a rapid collapse toward €25/MWh as delayed cargoes flood back. And looking further out, the research consensus turns structurally bearish from 2028 as new US and Qatari LNG capacity comes online.
For UK households, a separate thread of analysis points to a 10–15% rise in the Ofgem price cap in July, compounded by the unwinding of prior government support — pushing energy bills higher in the second half.
Three scenarios, one commodity. Worth watching which trigger fires first.