Natural gas spent the week pulled between a Middle East shock and a longer-run oversupply story.
On the bullish side, researchers argued that a Strait of Hormuz disruption removed roughly 20% of global LNG supply with no easy substitute, forcing Asian buyers into spot markets and squeezing Europe ahead of summer storage injections. One view sees TTF averaging around €55/MWh through Q2 and Q3, with US cargoes increasingly diverted to Europe as the JKM premium narrows. UK households were flagged for a 10–15% price cap hike in July. Henry Hub was described as a "quiet accumulation zone" in the $2.80s, with a structural path above $4 over time.
The contrarian thread is louder beneath the surface. Analysts noted US storage looks comfortable as associated gas from higher oil output offsets limited LNG export capacity. Further out, new US and Qatari trains arriving from 2028 are expected to tip the global LNG market into structural oversupply — and any credible Hormuz de-escalation could trigger a sharp TTF selloff as delayed cargoes land.