Published research is lining up bullish on natural gas — on both sides of the Atlantic — pointing to the same Middle East supply shock rippling through global LNG flows.
On European gas (the TTF benchmark), one strand of recent analysis argues the market is under-pricing supply risk. Asian buyers are scrambling to replace lost LNG cargoes on the spot market, putting them in direct competition with European buyers. European storage makes it worse: tanks are only about 36% full versus a 5-year average near 50%, leaving a thin buffer heading into winter.
On US gas (Henry Hub), a separate research view frames the current quiet — prices stuck in the high $2.80s on ample storage and mild weather — as an accumulation phase rather than a ceiling. That work points to a long-term target above $4 as storage draws down and demand builds.
The two camps aren't really in conflict. One is a near-term squeeze story driven by acute supply and storage stress in Europe; the other is a strategic call on a structurally tighter US market. Same direction, different clocks.