Natural gas research skewed firmly bullish this week, with geopolitics dominating the narrative.
Multiple analyses tied elevated prices to the Strait of Hormuz closure and damage at Qatar's Ras Laffan facility, which some researchers say could take years to fully repair. Japanese LNG was projected to peak near $22.5/mmbtu in Q3 2026 and stay above $20 through year-end. European TTF was forecast around €45/MWh across 2026 — roughly 40% above pre-conflict levels — before easing toward €35 in 2027 as supply normalizes.
On Henry Hub, technical work flagged a strong buy bias across momentum indicators, with one scenario analysis pointing above $4.50 if Iran talks collapse, and a symmetric move toward $2.50–$2.75 if a deal lands. A separate thread argued AI data center demand adds a structural bid even before geopolitics.
The cautious notes: Alberta AECO is expected to stay weak through summer on heavy production and limited egress, and LNG's price rise may lag oil products as new capacity comes online.