Two stories are dominating macro research right now: whether the AI capex boom can survive higher-for-longer rates, and how an energy shock from Strait of Hormuz disruptions is reshaping global inflation and central bank policy.
On AI, the published research consensus is nervous. Analysts point to neocloud credit stress (CoreWeave bond yields above 15%), collapsing hyperscaler free cash flow, and decelerating AI spending growth. One widely-cited estimate suggests roughly half of 2026 S&P 500 earnings growth depends on AI investment — a concentration risk researchers are increasingly flagging.
On energy, Brent is hovering near $107–110 with Hormuz flows at 70–80% of pre-war levels. Researchers note global headline inflation drifting toward 4–5% and central banks repricing hikes. Europe looks most exposed, with Eurozone inflation at a three-year high of 3.8% and French sovereign spreads widening.
Divergence: a contrarian thread argues the energy shock fades by 2027 and markets are overpricing tightening. On AI, one camp still sees sound compute demand in GPU rental prices and chip order books, while bears say hyperscaler cash flow is already stretched thin.
Key catalysts ahead: the FOMC decision, hyperscaler Q3 earnings, and the UK Autumn Budget.