Two forces dominated published macro research this week: sticky US inflation colliding with a dovish Fed, and growing cracks in the AI capex story.
On inflation, the broad research consensus flagged September's hot US prints (CPI 3.7%, PPI 6.3%) as the week's pivotal data. Yet most analysts still expect the Fed to hold in October, with December as the live meeting — a view shaped by dovish signals from Chair Warsh and Vice Chairs Bowman and Jefferson. Some researchers extend the lens globally, pointing to firming core inflation in the euro area, Japan, and Australia, where cost-plus pricing is entrenching pressures.
On AI, a wide swath of recent research highlights rising credit stress — CoreWeave bond yields near 15%, CDS doubling — alongside a tech selloff pushing safe-haven flows into Treasuries. The IMF has now flagged AI-sector underperformance as the top global financial stability risk.
Divergence: one camp argues this is "bad" supply-side inflation that self-corrects; a contrarian thread warns second-round energy effects are only beginning to show.