Three stress points are dominating macro research right now, and published analysis ties them together through higher yields and energy-driven inflation.
On oil, a broad swath of recent research points to Brent holding near $110 as Iranian pressure on the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf infrastructure attacks disrupt flows. One camp of analysts sees no durable de-escalation before mid-2027, and the published consensus links the shock directly to firmer inflation and rate expectations.
On France, researchers flag the OAT-Bund spread blowing out to roughly 150bp after weekend unrest, with a debt-to-GDP path near 122%. Some frame it as a contained French problem where spreads may be overshooting; others warn of a fiscal-political doom loop and further widening. Views also split on ECB backstops — PEPP flexibility is seen as the first line of defense, while TPI support is widely viewed as unlikely.
On AI, a contrarian thread of recent research highlights credit stress in neocloud names and growing debt-funded capex, flagging upcoming Meta and Tesla earnings as a key test of returns.