Three forces are dominating macro research this week: Middle East energy shocks, higher-for-longer central bank policy, and the AI capex boom as both a growth engine and a fresh inflation source.
The published consensus flags the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz as the key driver, with Brent cited between $95 and $109 keeping inflation well above target across major economies. Researchers point to the Fed's unanimous 25bp September hike — with core PCE near 3.4–3.8% — and the RBA's move to 4.60% as evidence of a synchronized tightening cycle. Markets are pricing roughly 70% odds of another Fed hike in October. Analysts also highlight 10-year Treasury yields above 5.2% as tightening global conditions.
On AI, one camp of analysts estimates $1–2 trillion in announced capex is simultaneously lifting growth and complicating disinflation. A contrarian thread argues the bond selloff is largely mechanical from passive flows, pushing back on the fiscal-deficit narrative others emphasize. Watch US core PCE, payrolls, and Eurozone flash CPI as the near-term catalysts.