Three forces are dominating macro commentary right now, according to the week's published research: US Treasury yields at multi-decade highs, a Middle East energy shock, and an AI investment boom reshaping credit markets.
A striking consensus across recently published analysis flags the US 10-year yield near 5.2% — the highest in roughly two decades — driven by resilient growth, sticky inflation, and the prospect of more Fed hikes. Markets are pricing one to three additional 25bp moves, with payrolls, PCE, and ISM this week seen as pivotal.
On energy, many analysts converge on one driver: President Trump's rejection of Iran's Strait of Hormuz proposals has reversed a brief diplomatic rally, keeping Brent above $100 and re-energising global inflation risk. That's feeding hawkishness at the Fed, RBA, and Norges Bank simultaneously.
On AI, several research threads highlight hyperscaler capex — now roughly 25% of US investment-grade bond supply — crowding credit markets and structurally lifting long-end yields. A contrarian view argues energy is now a growth headwind, not an inflation re-accelerant, weakening the case for further tightening.