Two forces are dominating the macro conversation right now: an energy price shock tied to the US-Iran conflict and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, and central banks hitting inflection points as inflation and growth data pull in opposite directions.
Published research this week broadly flags Middle East supply risk as the main driver pushing diesel, crude, and gas higher, with knock-on effects for inflation, freight, and rate decisions. On the Fed, one camp of analysts argues softer PCE and labour data justify a pause, while a contrarian thread warns sticky core services inflation keeps another hike live. The research consensus sees the ECB leaning dovish despite a eurozone inflation surprise — Lagarde's tone has pushed October hike odds below 30%. Australia's RBA has moved to 4.60%, with most published views expecting at least one more.
The transatlantic divergence is widening EUR/USD pressure and lifting the dollar to multi-month highs, according to recent analysis. Key catalysts cited: US payrolls, core PCE, and the ECB meeting.