Two forces dominate macro research this week: US-Iran escalation rippling through oil and energy inflation, and the AI capex supercycle reshaping credit and equities.
On geopolitics, a broad swath of published research argues renewed hostilities — strikes, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, a fraying ceasefire — are tightening oil and LNG markets just as US strategic reserves near exhaustion, Russian diesel export bans squeeze Europe, and EU gas storage runs below seasonal norms.
On the Fed, the research consensus is that softer June PPI (−0.3% m/m) and CPI have cut July hike odds to roughly 10–12%, though Chair Warsh's data-dependent, guidance-light stance keeps the reaction function murky. September odds sit near a coin flip.
On AI, analysts broadly project hyperscaler capex of $750–900 billion annually through 2027. One camp warns this is consuming nearly all operating cash flow, threatening buybacks; a contrarian thread notes credit markets and ETF flows are absorbing issuance with only modest spread widening.
Divergence runs deepest on oil: some see muted price action as proof no lasting shock is priced; others flag fragile Hormuz flows as a single-headline repricing risk.