Two stories are dominating macro research desks right now: the AI investment boom reshaping global equities, and the Middle East conflict rippling through energy, inflation, and central bank policy.
On AI, the published research consensus points to an extraordinary capital cycle — hyperscaler capex racing toward $1.5 trillion, record flows into AI hardware, and a meaningful lift to US corporate earnings and GDP. A more cautious camp of analysts flags tightening US rules on model releases, Chinese models eroding export controls, and a widening gap between buy-side earnings hopes and published consensus.
On the Middle East, researchers widely frame the US-Iran standoff as the dominant cross-asset driver. Brent spiked toward $80–81 before easing, Hormuz flows remain well below pre-conflict levels, and European gas storage is worryingly thin heading into winter.
Views diverge sharply on what comes next. One thread of recent research warns of bubble-like AI valuations and a possible 30–50% correction; another argues earnings will support the rally into 2027–28. On the Fed, some see markets overpricing hikes, others expect two more.