Two stories are driving the macro conversation today, and published research links them tightly together.
First, the US–Iran standoff at the Strait of Hormuz. Researchers across the board flag Iran's contested claim to have closed the strait as the session's key risk event, noting Brent jumped 4–10% intraday and forcing a rapid rethink of rate-hike odds at the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England. A contrarian thread of recent research pushes back, arguing deep managed-money shorts and a projected global oil surplus by 2027 make any spike hard to sustain — though some warn that $90–$100 oil would force a broader macro re-rating.
Second, Fed Chair Warsh's overhauled communication framework — shorter FOMC statements, no forward guidance, new policy task forces — with Tuesday's US June CPI and his first Congressional testimony as the near-term pivot. One camp of analysts sees cooling labor data keeping the Fed on hold; another expects one to three hikes by mid-2027.
Europe looks most exposed via gas; Asia-Pacific faces renewed inflation pressure on the RBA and RBNZ.