Two stories are dominating macro desks this week: a more hawkish Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh, and a fragile ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz that's pulling oil lower for now.
The published research consensus is that Warsh has shifted hawkish, with May core PCE at 3.4% and headline at 4.1% pushing markets to price hikes rather than cuts. But there's real disagreement on the path: one camp of analysts projects three 25bp hikes through 2026, while a contrarian view sees the Fed on hold until H2 2027. Several researchers also note Warsh is deliberately giving less forward guidance, which means more volatility around each data release.
On oil, Brent has retreated toward $72/bbl on the US-Iran ceasefire and partial reopening of shipping. Most commentary frames Europe, Japan, and China as the bigger winners from cheaper energy. But analysts caution the truce is fragile — tanker traffic is still well below pre-conflict levels, and any re-escalation could quickly reignite global inflation.
Thursday's US payrolls and eurozone CPI are the next big tests.