Two macro stories dominate published research this week: a hawkish Federal Reserve under Chair Warsh wrestling with sticky inflation, and a US-Iran agreement that has reopened the Strait of Hormuz and repriced oil globally.
On the Fed, the published research consensus is that core PCE at 3.4% — well above the 2% target — locks policy in restrictive territory for longer. Chair Warsh's pullback from forward guidance has added front-end volatility, with markets now pricing real odds of a hike by late 2026. One camp of analysts expects a hold as consumer data softens; a contrarian thread argues markets are still too dovish and flags up to 75bp of additional tightening by end-2027.
On oil, researchers note Brent has fallen back near $70–$74 to pre-conflict levels, easing inflation pressure in Europe and Asia. Some recently-published views caution that depleted reserves and slow restarts mean supply risk isn't fully gone.
A third thread: AI capex is described as both lifting US growth and keeping goods inflation sticky through heavy infrastructure spend.
Near-term catalyst flagged across research: US June payrolls.