Three macro currents are dominating published research this week.
First, the Fed. A broad swath of analysts argues Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish tone and focus on price stability is restoring central bank credibility and supporting the dollar, widening the rate gap with Europe. Some caution that lighter forward guidance means bigger event-day swings, and one thread notes Supreme Court questions around Fed independence could cap dollar upside.
Second, oil. A wide research consensus credits the US–Iran memorandum and Doha talks for Brent and WTI retreating toward pre-war levels, easing global inflation and reducing pressure on the UK, eurozone and New Zealand to hike further. A contrarian view warns that if Doha fails, crude could snap back to $75–80.
Third, AI capex. Analysts broadly identify hyperscaler spending as the structural engine behind US earnings strength and chip valuations — while a growing camp questions sustainability and bubble risk.
Divergence is sharpest on the Fed itself: one camp still prices hikes into early 2025; another argues soft CPI makes cuts the likelier next move.