Two stories drove macro research today, and they're tangled together: a hawkish Fed pivot under new Chair Kevin Warsh, and a US-Iran deal that crashed oil prices — reshaping the inflation outlook in the process.
On the Fed, the published research consensus this week reads the June FOMC as a hawkish surprise. Nine of 18 dot-plot participants now pencil in at least one more hike, the median 2026 dot rose to 3.75%, and core PCE forecasts were lifted to 3.3–3.6%. Several analysts also flag Warsh's communication overhaul — a terse 131-word statement, no personal dot, and an end to forward guidance — as a likely volatility driver, since markets lose visibility into the Fed's reaction function.
On oil, researchers tie Brent's 30% drop below $80 to the US-Iran MoU and a 60-day ceasefire extension, easing near-term inflation pressure.
Views diverge sharply on what comes next. One camp argues rates have peaked and cuts could arrive by year-end as wages and core PCE cool. A contrarian thread warns the oil relief may prove short-lived once SPR depletion and shut-in restart lags bite.