Two forces are dominating the macro conversation, according to research published this week: a blowout US jobs report that has shifted Fed expectations toward hikes, and a Middle East flare-up pushing oil toward multi-month highs.
On jobs, the published research consensus flags May's 172,000 nonfarm payrolls print — roughly double expectations — alongside 93,000 in upward revisions and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate. Markets have now priced in at least one Fed hike by year-end, short-end yields are up 8–10bps, and the dollar index has cleared 100. Several analysts argue new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will drop any remaining easing bias at the June FOMC, with one camp holding the Fed is already two hikes behind given AI capex, fiscal stimulus, and slowing labor supply. A contrarian thread counters that subdued 3.4% wage growth justifies staying on hold.
On oil, researchers point to renewed Iran–Israel exchanges and the Strait of Hormuz blockade as sustaining an energy risk premium, with Brent briefly at $97–98. Some warn crude could spike toward $130 if the Strait stays closed into July.
A third thread highlights a record tech equity supply wave — Alphabet's ~$80–85bn raise plus pending SpaceX and OpenAI listings — draining liquidity and pressuring semis.
Key catalysts ahead: US May CPI, the June FOMC, and Hormuz developments.