Strong US jobs data reset the Fed narrative this week — and reignited the debate over whether record equity highs are a melt-up or a bubble.
Payrolls surprised firmly to the upside with positive revisions, pushing analysts to dial back near-term rate cut expectations and to flag June 17 as a guidance event rather than an action one. The 10-year yield backed up to around 4.52% and the dollar index broke above 100, with researchers warning that crowded duration overweights among asset managers could amplify any further selloff in long bonds.
Equities kept grinding higher on AI-led earnings, with the S&P notching another record and concentration in mega-cap tech back at historic extremes. Commentary leaned cautious: stretched valuations, frothy IPO pipelines (SpaceX chatter especially), and signs of forced rotation out of semis to fund new issuance were cited as late-cycle tells.
A contrarian thread argued fiscal stimulus and roughly $1T in AI capex are simply postponing recession risk — while foreign Treasury demand quietly weakens.