Two stories are dominating macro research desks right now: a red-hot US jobs report rewriting the Fed playbook, and an AI mega-cap IPO wave reviving bubble debates.
On jobs, the published research consensus is that May's 172,000 payrolls print — roughly double expectations, with sizable upward revisions — has forced a near-complete repricing of Fed cuts. Futures now lean toward a 25bp hike by end-2026. Wage growth at 3.4% is cooling, but with CPI tracking near 4.2%, some analysts warn that an energy-driven push toward 4.5–5% would lower the bar for hikes even further. The June FOMC, the first press conference under new Fed Chair Warsh, and the next CPI print are flagged as back-to-back catalysts.
On tech, a separate camp of researchers frames the SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI IPO pipeline as a structural liquidity event, with index rule changes set to force passive buying regardless of valuation. A contrarian thread invokes classic bubble dynamics — cheap liquidity, narrative, concentration, stretched multiples — arguing the rally lives or dies on marginal dollar liquidity. That single thread ties both stories together.