Today's dominant macro story: the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, and how it is rewiring energy prices, inflation expectations, and central bank paths.
Researchers across the published landscape are framing global risk through one binary question — does Hormuz reopen or not? WTI fell more than 6% and European sovereign yields dropped around 10bps on ceasefire optimism, then partly reversed after fresh US strikes. One camp of analysts argues the energy shock has flipped Fed pricing from cuts to hikes, with Governor Waller's hawkish turn and incoming Chair Kevin Warsh's quieter communication style adding uncertainty. A contrarian thread counters that depleted household savings and pre-war job losses make the Fed reluctant to tighten regardless of oil.
The published consensus sees oil-importing economies — the euro area, Japan, and parts of emerging Asia — most exposed via weaker currencies and imported inflation, while Australia and Gulf producers benefit.
A secondary theme some recent research highlights: AI-linked capex is becoming a structural driver of fiscal expansion, corporate debt issuance, and equity concentration risk.
Key watch items flagged: April US PCE, the June FOMC under Warsh, and the Doha talks.