US-Iran talks over the Strait of Hormuz are dominating the macro tape, and published research is treating the energy and inflation fallout as one inseparable story.
The possibility of a deal to reopen the Strait has driven sharp intraday moves — Brent down 5–7%, with global bonds and equities following. Most analyst commentary this week frames the negotiations as the single biggest near-term driver. Researchers also argue the prior supply shock has pushed headline inflation materially higher across major economies, and that's why central banks have pivoted away from easing.
This week's US core PCE print is widely flagged as the next key catalyst for Fed expectations. A recent call from Fed Governor Waller to drop the easing bias is being read across the published consensus as reinforcing higher-for-longer.
Views diverge: one camp of analysts is skeptical a deal lands soon given unresolved nuclear and sanctions terms; another leans optimistic on market de-risking. A contrarian thread argues ex-energy inflation is already cooling and cuts could come faster than priced.