Published research this week is converging on one story: the US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption have become the dominant supply shock heading into 2026, feeding inflation and forcing a hawkish rethink of central bank paths — especially at the Fed, now under Kevin Warsh.
The consensus across recent third-party analysis is that 2026 Fed rate cuts are off the table, with several researchers arguing hike risk has actually risen. A contrarian camp still sees rates on hold as the base case, but even they concede real rates may already be accommodative given sticky inflation.
A second theme dominates the published commentary: the AI capex boom is masking real fragility in non-tech US sectors while keeping headline growth above trend. Some analysts treat this as a durable driver; others warn of concentration risk.
The geographic split is stark in the research. The eurozone and UK are sliding toward contraction, while US manufacturing prints multi-year highs. Emerging Asia — particularly the Philippines, Indonesia, and India — is described as acutely exposed to the energy shock.
Key catalysts flagged: the June FOMC, US PCE data, euro area inflation, BOJ's June meeting, and any movement in US-Iran talks.