Today's macro lens: the US-Iran standoff is the through-line shaping oil, inflation, and central bank posture worldwide.
Published research widely flags the Strait of Hormuz disruption, now over two months in, as the main driver behind WTI near $99–109, hot inflation prints, and a hawkish tone from policymakers. Trump's claim that talks are in "final stages" sparked a sharp reversal — oil down 5–7%, equities up, yields easing — but most analysts urge skepticism until tanker flows actually normalize. April FOMC minutes reinforced the hawkish tilt; the consensus read is that markets have repriced from cuts toward hike risk, with 2-year yields up roughly 40bp and 30-year yields near 19-year highs.
The pain isn't evenly spread. Researchers note Asia is most exposed — food and energy are over 40% of CPI in India and parts of Southeast Asia — and governments there are absorbing 70–75% of fuel cost increases, a building fiscal risk. US manufacturing PMI jumped to 55.3, while France's composite slid to a 66-month low of 43.5.
Divergence points: one camp argues persistent inflation makes Fed hikes likelier than cuts; another sees current rates as historically normal. A contrarian thread warns gold could give back gains if tensions ease.