Gold's outlook splits cleanly by time horizon: cautious now, constructive once the Fed stops hiking.
The bullish camp in recently published research points to a softening US dollar, steady emerging-market central bank buying, and financial-repression risks as reasons gold can grind higher over the next 3 to 12 months. One thread of analysis expects fresh record highs once the Fed signals hikes are done and potentially restarts asset purchases.
The bearish case, argued by other researchers this week, is about the present: rising Treasury yields and ongoing tightening are keeping gold rangebound, with a strong dollar acting as a structural headwind until the macro regime shifts. A short-lived pullback ahead of any next hike is also flagged.
The published consensus, in other words, isn't really a disagreement — it's a horizon split. The same catalyst, a Fed pivot toward rate cuts, is what separates the bearish near term from the bullish medium term in most of the research we reviewed.