Gold's week: a tug-of-war between near-term rate pressure and a strengthening structural bull case.
Bearish arguments centered on the short end: persistent inflation, hawkish Fed commentary from officials including Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari, rising Treasury yields, and a firm dollar were flagged as keeping gold rangebound and heading for a weekly loss. One technically-driven view sees a proper bottom nearer $3,500 before the next leg higher.
The strategic case, however, dominated published commentary. Multiple analysts pointed to record central bank buying — particularly from emerging markets and China — resilient ETF inflows despite 20-year highs in real yields, and currency debasement concerns as reasons gold is behaving differently this cycle. Cited institutional targets ranged from an average around $4,560 this year to $5,000+ longer term, with some outlier projections near $6,000 by end-2026.
The tactical setup described: grind higher, two steps forward and one back, with a decisive Fed pivot seen as the catalyst for the next impulse.