Gold: published research is leaning firmly bullish, with only isolated caution.
The consensus across recent third-party research points to further upside in spot gold, driven by a softer US dollar, falling Treasury yields, and persistent geopolitical risk from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea. Analysts repeatedly flag central bank buying as a structural tailwind — researchers highlight ongoing PBoC accumulation (the largest monthly addition since October 2023, extending a 21-month streak), Korea resuming purchases for the first time in 13 years, and broader Asian official-sector demand. Some recently published views also point to returning ETF and ETC flows and a recovery in Western investment demand.
On levels, one tactical thread argues for a short pullback near 4,371 over the next week or two before a push toward 4,575–4,750 — framed as a buying opportunity, not a reversal. A contrarian view warns that if 30-year Treasury yields stay above 5%, gold could slide toward $3,000/oz by year-end. The disagreement is really about yields, not direction.