Gold: a decisive breakout revived the bull case this week.
Published research pointed to a technical break above roughly $4,000–$4,300, with analysts citing a shooting-star pullback risk near-term but a base of buying underneath. Several strategists tied the move to a softer U.S. jobs report, falling real yields, and reduced odds of further Fed tightening — factors they argued have restored real rates as gold's dominant driver.
Structural arguments dominated the commentary: persistent central bank accumulation, de-dollarization narratives, mounting U.S. fiscal deficits, and Middle East tensions (including Iranian demand for alternative capital access). Strategic price targets ranged widely — a Q4 base case near $5,000 in one note, with more speculative long-run scenarios reaching $8,000–$10,000 tied to reserve-currency erosion.
Dissenting voices flagged risks: a break below $4,000 would reopen a multi-year correction, and in a genuine dollar-shortage shock, gold has historically been sold for liquidity.