Published research on gold is running overwhelmingly bullish right now, with the only dissent being short-term profit-taking caution — not a fundamental bearish call.
Several strands of recent research converge on the same macro pillars. The most-cited structural driver is central bank buying, with multiple analyst teams flagging accelerating purchases from non-Western economies diversifying reserves away from the dollar and euro. Geopolitical risk — the US-Iran standoff and wider Middle East tensions — is widely cited as adding a persistent safe-haven bid. On the monetary side, one camp of analysts argues that ballooning sovereign debt and the potential for yield-curve control are structural tailwinds. Published forecasts anchor targets of roughly $4,600/oz in 2026 and $5,000/oz in 2027 to that backdrop, and a more strategic thread points to an eventual $8,000–$9,000 range on debt-crisis dynamics.
Researchers also note gold's resilience despite high real yields and a firm dollar, arguing any Fed pivot would amplify the move. Tactical commentary frames pullbacks toward $4,500–$4,860 as entry points to build to roughly 5% portfolio weights.