Gold's outlook is split, but the published research consensus leans constructive on a multi-year view — even as near-term pressure from higher real yields and profit-taking gets acknowledged.
Several research desks frame the recent sell-off as consolidation within a longer uptrend, with technical support holding and gold "building a base" before resuming higher. One macro argument making the rounds: markets are pricing in maximum hawkishness from the Fed, but with inflation easing and real yields already elevated, researchers argue the risk/reward now favors gold — especially if softer oil pushes the Fed toward cuts. A separate strategic case rests on structural central-bank demand, as foreign reserve managers diversify out of US Treasuries into gold to cut counterparty and sanctions risk.
The dissenting strategic view, from one published bank forecast, projects an average near US$4,600/oz through September 2026, citing higher global rates and profit-taking. A more contrarian thread goes further — arguing speculative excess has peaked and gold faces years of range-bound or declining prices.