Published research this week argues gold's near-term downside is strictly conditional — and the condition isn't currently in play.
The view from one camp of analysts: a sharp drop in gold would require a Middle East peace agreement to materialize. Absent that specific catalyst, the published research consensus sees no justification for further downside from here.
In other words, the bearish case for gold hinges on a single geopolitical trigger that these researchers explicitly say they do not expect in the near term. Everything else in the current macro setup, in their framing, points to support holding.
Worth noting: this is reportage on what outside research is arguing, not a forecast. But it's a useful lens for anyone watching gold positioning — the bear case is narrow and event-dependent, not structural.