Published research is cautiously constructive on EUR/USD over the medium term, but the near-term tape looks messy.
Some recently-published forecasts see gradual euro gains, with one set of projections pointing to 1.14 by end-2026 and above 1.20 by late 2027, and another mapping a slower climb from roughly 1.13 in Q4 2026 to 1.16 by Q3 2027. A separate camp of analysts expects consolidation around 1.12 pending the US jobs print, flagging that a soft number would change the call. A contrarian thread treats the euro as a funding currency, with euro-funded carry trades likely to persist if equity volatility settles.
The bullish case leans on a vulnerable dollar: US political gridlock and softer Fed expectations, even as the euro recently gave back ground on a dovish ECB repricing alongside falling oil. The cautious case points to euro-specific drags — French political risk around the April election, widening OAT spreads, and the fact that investors remain comfortable parking cash in dollars while Treasuries behave as a safe haven again.
By the numbers:
• Positioning (CFTC, as of 3 Nov 2026): Euro: speculators (leveraged funds) are net short, 9.0% of open interest. That is the largest net short in a year: crowded short (COT index 0 of 100). The net position fell by 6,985 contracts on the week.