Published research is tilting bearish on the euro versus the dollar in the near term, though not unanimously.
Most recent analyses argue euro weakness, pointing to rising European natural gas prices, shaky confidence in French government debt, and tighter financial conditions across the eurozone. One camp of analysts sees room for the dollar index to push toward 103, citing France's fiscal and political risk alongside a tepid euro bounce. A separate thread adds oil, Middle East tensions, and the risk of a European energy crisis, noting that when global assets sell off together, the dollar tends to benefit short term. Systematic models in the published research also flag gradual euro deterioration, most pronounced on a roughly nine-week horizon, though with less conviction than their bearish calls on the yen or Canadian dollar.
A contrarian view published recently sees EUR/USD recovering to around 1.15 in three months and 1.19 in twelve, expecting near-term energy-driven softness to give way as the shock fades.
Not every bearish analyst is acting on the view — some flag that shorting here feels like chasing, with the dollar's correlation to US tech unstable.