EUR/USD: published research is split by horizon — bearish near-term, cautiously bullish further out.
The near-term bearish camp dominates tactical calls. Researchers point to high energy prices weighing on euro-area trade, French fiscal and political stress (one note flags the French-German bond spread at 174bp, with 200bp seen as a pain threshold), softening business surveys, and a firm Fed supporting the dollar. One fair-value estimate pegs the pair near 1.07 once French risk is included. Another thread highlights AI-related flows into US assets as added dollar support.
Specific near-term targets from recently published work include a retest of 1.11–1.112, 1.10 by year-end, 1.08 in H1 2026, and a bottom near 1.10 in Q1 2027.
The bullish counter-case rests on dollar overvaluation and gradual convergence. Longer-dated published paths see roughly 1.13 in late 2026, 1.14 by December 2026, 1.16 by Q3 2028, and 1.20+ thereafter. One contrarian view argues tech-credit stress plus falling Treasury yields could lift the euro ~1.5% over six weeks — but it's conditional.
Near-term direction: unsettled.