Published research is split on EUR/USD, mostly by time horizon.
The near-term bearish case rests on French fiscal and political risk. One camp of analysts notes the ECB has already turned somewhat dovish partly because of wider European bond spreads, and warns that further widening would raise growth risks and drag on the euro — though they stress French stress is chronic right now, not acute. A separate tactical view points to French spreads widening again and argues the euro has "no good excuse to rally"; researchers in that camp recently exited a long euro position for a small loss and see downside or flat trade around the next Fed meeting.
The more constructive medium-term view, published this week, maps a path from roughly 1.12 today to 1.15 by late 2026 and 1.20 by late 2027. That call is explicitly conditional on markets repricing Fed rate hikes lower — currently about 67bp is priced by end-2027, versus a forecast of just one 25bp hike. The same analysts flag French political risk could resurface before the April 2027 elections.
So the disagreement is more about horizon than direction.