Euro watchers are split, and the split is mostly about time horizon.
Near-term, several researchers argue the euro looks vulnerable, with France at the center of the bearish case. The published analysis points to widening French bond spreads, a looming 2027 budget vote, and a sovereign ratings review due this week. One camp frames it as a binary: either the ECB effectively backstops France, at a cost to the euro, or it doesn't, at a cost to EU stability. A consolidation after September's sharp drop is also seen as overdue.
Looking further out, a more constructive thread of recent research sees EUR/USD recovering to around 1.16 by year-end, leaning on a resilient eurozone economy even if French politics keep markets choppy. With spot near 1.12, some published views treat a slip to 1.1180 as roughly as likely as a rally to 1.1270, so the near-term gap isn't dramatic. A few analysts also flag selective opportunities to sell downside euro risk for yield against the dollar.