EUR/USD research is split by time horizon, not by conviction — and that distinction matters.
In the near term, one camp of analysts argues the euro can push toward 1.1340/50, pointing to jitters in US AI stocks and stretched dollar long positioning that leaves the greenback vulnerable. A related view published this week holds that France-linked risks — the failed budget vote, sovereign downgrade risk, wider OAT spreads — are already in the price, with the euro's sharp post-event rally cited as the tell.
The published research consensus at a longer horizon leans the other way. A cyclical-horizon view puts EUR/USD fair value "much closer to 1.06," citing OAT spreads not yet reflected in the currency, soft eurozone growth, and elevated oil and European gas prices as structural drags. Some recently-published strategy notes also flag the euro as a preferred funding currency for carry trades, reinforcing the medium-term bearish tilt.
The takeaway from the research: a tactical bounce over days to weeks can coexist with a slower drift lower over months.