Euro bulls found a late-week pulse after days of pile-on bearishness.
Through midweek, the published research skewed firmly dollar-bullish on EUR/USD. The dominant arguments: French fiscal and political stress widening peripheral spreads, speculative euro shorts rebuilding to the heaviest since 2020, a widening US rate advantage, and a Fed still seen as hawkish. Three-to-six-month targets clustered in the 1.09–1.13 range, with one bearish fair-value estimate pegged closer to 1.06 and the euro increasingly described as a preferred funding currency.
By Thursday and Friday, a notable shift emerged: several independent analysts argued the France risk premium and Fed hawkishness are now largely priced in, with stretched dollar positioning and wobbles in US AI stocks offering the euro tactical support toward 1.1325–1.1350. Longer-horizon notes still see EUR/USD recovering to 1.17–1.22 by 2027–28 as the Fed eventually eases and eurozone conditions stabilize.
Net: near-term pressure acknowledged, but the one-sided bearish conviction softened into the weekend.