Published research is leaning bearish on the euro — with one notable long-term dissent.
The consensus across recent analyst notes points to continued pressure on EUR/USD. Researchers cite a hawkish Fed, persistent US rate support, and euro-specific headwinds — especially France's widening fiscal risk premium and its drag on Eurozone rate differentials. Some analysts add that elevated oil and gas prices weigh disproportionately on the euro given Europe's energy import reliance. One tracked positioning read notes euro net shorts have hit their highest level since 2020, reflecting broad conviction in further downside.
A contrarian strategic view published recently projects EUR/USD rising to 1.14 by end-2026 and 1.21 by end-2027, underpinned by greater eurozone fiscal flexibility and a structural softening of the dollar.
The apparent split is largely a horizon story: the bearish calls are tactical to cyclical, while the bullish case is multi-year. One conditional near-term upside scenario floated in the research — a rebound toward 1.13–1.135 — hinges on an AI-sector selloff weakening the dollar, not euro strength.